Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 0.018558 0.021025 0.023701 0.026821 0.030359 0.034250 0.038854
2025-07-27 0.014933 0.018387 0.022458 0.027616 0.033984 0.041599 0.051412
2025-08-03 0.012526 0.016327 0.021070 0.027433 0.035760 0.046311 0.060733
2025-08-10 0.010900 0.014884 0.020091 0.027410 0.037458 0.050810 0.069968
2025-08-17 0.009502 0.013505 0.018951 0.026922 0.038329 0.054122 0.077760
2025-08-24 0.008638 0.012726 0.018491 0.027242 0.040239 0.058917 0.087954
2025-08-31 0.007781 0.011843 0.017763 0.027050 0.041319 0.062530 0.096671
2025-09-07 0.007269 0.011405 0.017619 0.027672 0.043615 0.068075 0.108748
2025-09-14 0.006472 0.010443 0.016577 0.026786 0.043457 0.069793 0.114918
2025-09-21 0.005904 0.009781 0.015931 0.026444 0.044094 0.072757 0.123292
2025-09-28 0.005314 0.009024 0.015057 0.025636 0.043865 0.074250 0.129282
2025-10-05 0.005133 0.008931 0.015258 0.026630 0.046732 0.081107 0.145031
2025-10-12 0.004893 0.008721 0.015255 0.027294 0.049125 0.087422 0.160550
2025-10-19 0.004695 0.008569 0.015339 0.028117 0.051873 0.094604 0.178342
2025-10-26 0.004362 0.008139 0.014891 0.027929 0.052749 0.098465 0.190279
2025-11-02 0.004085 0.007788 0.014553 0.027906 0.053912 0.102927 0.203739
2025-11-09 0.003771 0.007340 0.013994 0.027409 0.054116 0.105569 0.213845
2025-11-16 0.003591 0.007131 0.013867 0.027735 0.055943 0.111481 0.231016
2025-11-23 0.003363 0.006809 0.013496 0.027539 0.056701 0.115326 0.244273
2025-11-30 0.003247 0.006702 0.013535 0.028173 0.059200 0.122874 0.265978
2025-12-07 0.002977 0.006256 0.012860 0.027271 0.058411 0.123569 0.272999
2025-12-14 0.002786 0.005960 0.012465 0.026922 0.058762 0.126669 0.285546
2025-12-21 0.002566 0.005582 0.011872 0.026099 0.058008 0.127328 0.292659